After the last week’s advance against majority of its counterpart, backed by the optimistic tone of the RBNZ Governor, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) maintained it’s across the board strength during the current week as well. However, the Kiwi, as it is popularly known, weakened against its European and UK counterparts on Tuesday as improvements in Manufacturing Production details from Italy & France, coupled with the improved UK GDP forecast from NIESR, strengthened the EUR & GBP respectively. Market attention now remains centered on the Greek talks, starting from Wednesday, that would decide the Greece existence into the Euro-zone, and the Quarterly Inflation Report by the Bank of England.
Meanwhile, the following is a brief technical overview of EURNZD, GBPNZD, NZDJPY & NZDCHF.
Irrespective of pair’s heavy decline during the last week, the ascending trend-line, near 1.5230 at present, coupled with the rising RSI, continue supporting the EURNZD advance towards 1.5315-20 resistance-zone, encompassing 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its mid-January to early-February up-move. Further, an extended rally above 1.5320, quickly followed by the 1.5345, could fuel the pair towards testing 38.2% Fibo, near 1.5425. Should the pair closes above 1.5425 on a daily basis, it can immediately rally to 1.5530. Alternatively, a break of 1.5230 is likely to be followed by the 1.5170 (61.8% Fibo) and the 1.5030 (76.4% Fibo) support levels. On an extended decline below 1.5030, the pair can drift lower towards 1.4960 and the 1.4930 support levels which become important to determine near-term moves of the pair.
GBPNZD seems forming symmetrical triangle, signaling the funneled down trading range, while connecting its recent extremes on H4. On the upside, the 2.0690 becomes an immediate resistance for the pair while 2.0455 restricts the near-term declines. Considering the recent strength of the GBP, backed by improved fundamentals, the pair is likely to rally towards 2.0755 and 2.0880 on the break of 2.0690 should the Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE reveals optimistic comments. Moreover, a break of 2.0880 could further extend the pair’s up-move towards its 2014 high of 2.1052. On the downside, a break of 2.0455 can give rise to 2.0330 and the 2.0280 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its one month advance. Additional weakness on the part of the pair to break below 2.0280 could further lowered down the pair towards test 2.0150 support level.
On Tuesday, NZDJPY broke above its one-month old descending trend-line and rallied towards near three week high during the early hours of Wednesday. However, oversold RSI level, coupled with the expected rise in safe haven demand of JPY, signals the pair’s pullback towards 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2014 – February 2015 decline, also including the resistance turned support trend line, near 87.80. Further, a break below 87.80 could further weaken the pair towards testing 86.60 and the 86.00 support mark. On the break of 86, the pair is likely to test 85.50 and the 84.60 support levels before challenging the 84.04 support. On the upside, 50% Fibo. near the pair psychological level of 89.00 becomes immediate resistance for the pair, breaking which 89.70 and 90.20 are expected consecutive resistances. Moreover, a break of 90.20 can fuel the pair’s rally towards 91.20 and the crucial 91.70 resistance levels.
NZDCHF is trading in a range of 110 pips since the early days of February, as signaled by the horizontal lines, with 0.6780 being immediate support and the 0.6890 being the quick resistance. The break of 0.6780, also encompassing support line of the ascending trend channel, the pair is likely to extend its decline towards 0.6650 support before testing the 0.6580 and 0.6500 mark. On the break of 0.6500, the pair can becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 0.6350 mark. Should the pair gains enough of strength to break 0.6890, it can immediately rally towards horizontal resistance of 0.6980 quickly followed by the 0.7000 psychological mark and the upper line of the channel near 0.7010. A sustained break of trend channel resistance can fuel the pair’s rally towards 0.7100 horizontal resistance mark.
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