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Short-term Trading Idea FX AUD/CAD – Bear Speculation: Expecting a Break in the 0.94 Support

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the Canadian dollar received support from strong labor market data and growing price of oil. The AUD/CAD has inched closer to the support. The weekly indicators are in the neutral zone, so there’s a chance of passing the support and shifting to the lower limit of canal A.

The last time I did an idea on this pair was on 6th April. Due to the cheapening of iron ore, and expectations of a loosening of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia, I expected the AUD/CAD to fall to 0.8977. The idea wasn’t realized since the sellers didn’t manage to break the 0.9400 support.

This week I’ve made three ideas on the Canadian dollar (AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD, GBP/CAD), including the Australian dollar. I believe that there’s an interesting technical picture forming on them which shouldn’t be ignored. The AUD/CAD is again edging towards the 0.94 support.

Last Tuesday the RBA kept its interest rate at 2.00%. The Australian dollar started to gradually restore its position against the American dollar and other currencies. By the evening the growth had hastened.

Australian GDP on Wednesday helped the AUD/CAD reach 0.9715. GDP in Q1 of 2015 grew by 0.9% QOQ and 2.3% YOY against a forecasted 0.7% QOQ and 2.1% YOY. Traders were buying the Australian dollar, expecting the RBA had completed the cycle of relaxing monetary policy.

On Thursday the mood went against the Aussie. April retail sales in Australia hadn’t changed in relation to those of March and the previous value was reassessed downwards by 0.1% to 0.2% (forecasted 0.3%). Australia’s balance of trade deficit in April increased.

By the end of the week the Australian dollar had lost all of the points it had gained and closed down around 0.9464. The Canadian dollar received support from strong labor market data and the increasing price of oil.

Job creation in Canada increased last month by 58, 900 after an April decrease by 19, 700 (forecasted 10,000). Oil prices gained support from OPEC’s decision on Friday to keep the oil extraction quota at 30 million barrels a day. This decision was already taken into account by the market: the price of oil went up.

The weekly candle has a bearish body with a long upper tail. I’m making another attempt to break the 0.94 support with a subsequent fall to 0.8977.

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