On Monday the euro/dollar didn’t reach the calculated level, but, on the whole, what I expected to happen took place. Due to a weakening of the euro/pound, the euro/dollar fell on the American session to 1.0556 (target was 1.0540). The euro/pound fell to 0.7012.
The euro is continuing to remain under pressure as the ECB meeting approaches in which the market expects additional easing of monetary policy via an extension of QE.
Main news of the day (EET):
- 10:15-11:00, EU November indices for business activity in the manufacturing sector;
- 10:55, German November changes in unemployment and unemployment level taking seasonal factors into account;
- 11:00, BoE’s Mark Carney to speak;
- 11:30, UK November PMI;
- 12:00 Eurozone October unemployment level;
- 15:30, Canadian September and Q3 GDP;
- 17:00, US November manufacturing index from ISM.
The euro is back to the LB. I don’t see any inverted pattern for purchases at the moment, so on my forecast I’ve gone for a weakening of the euro to 1.0530. Yesterday I expected to see the fall to 1.0540 and today I expect to see it drop to 1.0530.
- Intraday target maximum: 1.0596 (current Asian), minimum: 1.0530, close: 1.0550;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).
Nervousness on the market is set to last until the ECB convenes on 3rd December. The monthly candle closed significantly down. The monthly indicators (stochastic, CCI, AO, AC) are showing a further fall for the euro.
The euro/dollar is trading around the LB. Since the calendar is empty for the euro, the key pairs could see movement in different directions until the end of trading in Asia. Before the ECB meeting I expect to see a fall of the euro to 1.0520/30.
The euro/dollar has broken the lower limit of the internal bar from 25th November. Due to this I expect to see a test of 1.0520/30. Now to the Weekly.
November closed down for the euro. The monthly indicators are showing a fall for the euro and the weekly are trying to turn things around. It’s likely that after the ECB meeting and the NFP, we will see a correction take place on the dollar.