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EUR/USD: upwards correction expected after a new low

Previous:

Trading on the euro closed down on Friday. Expectations of a rebound before the weekend failed to materialise. The level of 1.0637 (67 degrees) didn't hold. The rate slid to 1.0608 (90 degrees) on the back of a rise in US bond yields.

The rise in bond yields didn't last long, however. Having reached a session high of 2.4336%, yields then fell by 1.45% to 2.3884% in the space of 2 hours. The euro consequently ricocheted from  a low of 1.0608 to 1.0652 (up 44 points).

The preliminary figures of the Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan in the US amounted to 95.7 for February (forecasted: 98.0, previous figure: 98.5).

Market expectations:

On Monday, trading on the euro opened up. The presidential election in Germany this weekend did nothing to support the single currency. Germany has elected their former foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as their 12th president.

Trading closed up after Friday's American session. On Monday, the pair is down in Asia. After an updating of the maximum, I'm expecting to see some correctional movement to around the 1.0657 mark. As the minimum moves from 1.0608 to 1.0595, the 45th degree will shift to 1.0647. This means that the growth of the euro may stall at around 1.0650. Given that the buyer ratio is currently at 30%, the market will be looking for a balancing point at the lower levels.

Day's news:

  • 10:00 Germany: Wholesale Price Index (Jan);
  • 14:00 Germany: Bundesbank monthly report;
  • OPEC monthly oil report.

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Intraday forecast: low: 1.0595, high: 1.0657, close: 1.0635

On Friday, the 67th degree couldn't stop the euro from falling. After a 4-hour flat, the euro rate slid to the 90th degree on the back of a rise in US bond yields. Just as yields began to fall, the euro rate bounced back.

In Asia, bond yields are trading in positive territory. They traded within a narrow range for 5 hours. Experts are expecting 10-year bonds to break through the trend line through to 2.4486. In response to this, I'm expecting the euro to fall during the European session. As soon as buyers test the strength of the line, expect a corrective movement in line with the forecast. As bonds fall below 2.4130, the euro's growth will pick up pace. The intermediate resistance for the euro is 1.0630.

On the daily timeframe, the CCI indicator is below the -100 mark. The AO indicator and stochastic oscillator are pointing downwards. The immediate target is 1.0587.



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