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EURUSD: pair could come under pressure from a falling cross

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On Monday the 12th of June, trading on the Euro closed slightly down. Despite the support provided from the French parliamentary election results, the Euro fell against the greenback. The British pound dragged all other currencies down with it as it has been under sustained pressure over the last few days due to an unfavourable result for Theresa May in the British parliamentary election. In the US session, the Euro fell against the dollar to 1.1192.

Market expectations:

On Tuesday, trader attention will be focused on inflation data from the US and UK, as well as a ZEW report from Germany. In addition, today marks the beginning of a two-day sit-down for the FOMC. Interest rates are expected to be raised by 0.25% to the 1.0-1.25% range. The rate hike has already been completely factored in by the market. Another hike is expected in September.

At the time of writing this review, the Euro is trading at 1.1190 USD. The EUR/GBP cross is providing support to buyers, which is why the EUR/USD pair is reluctantly retreating. I'm expecting the Euro to fall further to 1.1166. We need to keep an eye on US bond yields. 10Y bonds have broken the resistance at 2.229%. We could be headed towards 1.1150.

Day's news (GMT 3):

  • 09:00 Germany: wholesale price index (May);
  • 11:30 UK: CPI (May), CPI core (May), PPI (May), retail price index (May), DCLG house price index (May), PPI core output (May);
  • 12:00 Germany: ZEW survey - current situation (Jun), ZEW survey - economic sentiment (Jun);
  • 13:00 USA: NFIB business optimism index (May);
  • 15:30 USA: PPI (May).

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Intraday forecast: low: 1.1160, high: 1.1207, close: 1.1172.

My expectations for Monday were realised. Thanks to the EUR/GBP cross, the Euro rose to 1.1232. Then, having bounced off the upper boundary of the channel, the Euro fell against the dollar to 1.1192.

In my forecast, I've predicted that the Euro will fall to 1.1160. I propose that today's movements will be similar to yesterday's. Here, we need to keep an eye on the dynamics of the EUR/GBP cross. If the cross collapses after the last few days of growth, there won't be an upwards rebound for the Euro. A strong downwards correction on the cross could put the trend line at 1.1160 under threat. After passing 1.1160, sellers will open up two new targets; 1.1127 and 1.1075. The 67th degree is at 1.1154.



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