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EURUSD: long weekend in the US and Canada

Previous:

On Friday the 30th of June, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. On the last day of the week, month and quarter, buyers retreated from the 1.1445 high to 1.1392 (-53). During the month of June, the euro appreciated by 1.55% ( 175 pips). During the second quarter, it rose by 7.11% ( 750 pips). I believe that this is a technical correction that still hasn’t come to an end. Markets ignored the statistics released before the long weekend in the US and Canada.

US statistics:

The personal income index in May grew by 0.4% (forecast: 0.3%, previous reading: 0.4%). The personal spending index for May grew by 0.1% (forecast: 0.1%, previous reading: 0.4%).

The Chicago PMI grew to 65.7% (forecast: 58%, previous reading: 59.4%).

The Michigan University consumer sentiment index fell to 95.1% (forecast: 94.5%, previous reading: 97.1%).

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 09:30 Australia: RBA commodity index (Jun);
  • 10:15 Switzerland: real retail sales (May);
  • 10:15 Spain: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun);
  • 10:30 Switzerland: SVME PMI (Jun);
  • 10:45 Italy: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun);
  • 10:50 France: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun);
  • 10:55 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun);
  • 11:00 Italy: unemployment (May);
  • 11:30 UK: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun);
  • 11:30 USA: Fed’s Bullard speech;
  • 12:00 EU: unemployment rate (May);
  • 15:00 UK: BoE’s governor Carney speech;
  • 16:45 USA: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun);
  • 17:00 USA: ISM prices paid (Jun), ISM manufacturing PMI (Jun), construction spending (May);
  • 20:30 UK: MPC member Haldane’s speech;
  • 22:30 USA: total vehicle sales (Jun).

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView.

The price has corrected by 45 degrees from the 1.1445 high. The LB balance line has provided additional support for the single currency. At the time of writing this review, the pair is trading in sideways trend at around 1.1413.

So, what can we expect from our pair on Monday? The news block is dense, but because of the fact that it’s Monday, I won’t be paying attention to it. Exchanges in the US and Canada are closed today due to national holidays. Because of this, a reduction in trading volume on currency markets is expected.

The euro closed down on Friday, but given that the bearish impulse was exhausted in the first half of the day, and that the pair spent the rest of the day in a sideways trend, I’m not expecting Monday to work against Friday. Still, according to the Stochastic oscillator, we’re going to see a lot of buying over the next 3-4 hours.

I’m forecasting a recovery to 1.1424 (triangular formation) followed by a drop to 1.1365 (67 degrees). Because of the national holidays in the US and Canada, I’m not so sure about my prediction coming true. European traders will have a window for bringing the price down until 15:00 (EEST). If they don’t take this opportunity, however, the price should stay flat until Wednesday. If the hourly candlestick closes above 1.1430, we can forget about the rate dropping.

Key events this week: UK & US PMI indices, RBA rate decision, FOMC meeting minutes, US unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls.



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