The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017, according to figures published yesterday at 15:30 (GMT 3). Although this is historical data and was already factored into the price of the US dollar, it does increase the likelihood of the US seeing 2.0% real GDP growth in 2017. We can take from this that the US dollar could further strengthen its position against the majors by the end of the year.
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 02:30 Japan: national CPI (Aug), overall household spending (Aug).
- 02:50 Japan: BoJ summary of opinions, industrial production (Aug), retail trade (Aug).
- 10:00 Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (Sep).
- 11:30 UK: GDP (Q2).
- 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (Sep).
- 15:30 USA: personal spending (Aug), personal income (Aug).
- 15:30 Canada: GDP (Jul).
- 17:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Sep).
The last trading session of the week could turn out to be quite volatile. Inflation data could have a marked influence of the euro. Remember that the ECB bases its monetary policy on its inflation outlook. Macro-data from the US on consumer income and spending could give us an indication of the economic situation in the third quarter. All this data to be released sets the scene for a volatile trading session.
The EURUSD currency pair has yet to renew the “key base” of the upwards trend on the H4 timeframe:
As such, we can conclude that due to the breakout of the trend line, while the trend has yet to be completely broken, it calls the continuation of the upwards trend into serious question. In my opinion, there aren’t any buy or sell signals on the H4 timeframe.
On the 30-minute timeframe, the EURUSD pair is trading around the resistance line of the downwards trend:
For now, I’m going to refrain from trading on the M30 timeframe.
At the time of writing, the EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1774.
On the hourly timeframe (H1), the GBPUSD pair tried to reenter the recently formed range:
Still, the pair didn’t manage to stay in this range, and the downwards trend on the M30 timeframe remains intact:
We can see here that although the GBPUSD pair broke away from the trend line yesterday, the downwards trend still isn’t broken since the latest top couldn’t beat the previous one. Because of this, the downwards trend is still intact.
We could see a weak sell signal appear in the near future on the M30 timeframe from 1.3412 levels, but I’m going to hold off on opening a short position given that the previous two tops and previous two lows are very close together. This indicates that the downwards trend on M30 is fairly unstable and unreliable.
At the time of writing, the GBPUSD pair is trading at 1.3412.
Yesterday, the USDCHF pair failed to break away from the trend line on D1:
In the first half of yesterday’s trading session, the USDCHF pair rose above the trend line, but this effort was short-lived, and the pair quickly returned to the downwards channel on D1.
It’s important to note that there hasn’t been any trend-setting macro-data from the US in the last few days, so I’m keeping my long position open on the USDCHF pair with a Stop Loss at 0.9390 and Take Profit at 0.9940 – 0.9960.
At the time of writing, the USDCHF pair is trading at 0.9716.