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EUR/USD breaches Dec-Jan downtrend, exposes 1.10 area

© Dukascopy Bank SA
"With respect to the risks to the inflation outlook, the most concerning is the possibility that inflation expectations become unanchored to the downside."
- William Dudley, New York Fed President (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
On Friday the most popular FX currency pair violated the two-month trend-line near 1.09, while daily gains attempted to push the pair as high at 1.10 (100-day SMA; Bollinger band). However, bearish market participants overtook the lead by the end of US trading and closed the week at 1.0915. Some weakness is possible on Monday, as Bank Holiday in the US is likely to reduce daily trading volume. After breaching the trend-line, the bulls will try to test the aforementioned 1.10 mark this week, even though this scenario is not particularly encouraged by negative weekly technical indicators.  

Traders' Sentiment
The share of SWFX long traders decreased to 44% by Monday morning. Meanwhile, commands to sell the Euro against the Buck in 100-pip range from the spot account for 55% today.

© Dukascopy Bank SA


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