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EUR/USD: up-trend continuation favored

The overall bias is to the upside with the 4-hour chart showing established peak-and-trough progression higher and the spike higher yesterday, which pushed the exchange clearly above the monthly pivot at 1.1087.

More upside is expected, but I’d ideally like to see a break above the May 22 highs at 1.1207 first for confirmation, with a potential target at the R1 monthly pivot at 1.1355.

From a fundamental perspective more upside is also favoured as reports indicate the likelihood of some sort of deal emerging to save a Greek default; whilst data too has been strong.

Today sees the ECB rate meeting; whilst not expected to deliver any policy change it may reveal more details about what conditions might prompt tapering of asset purchases. Conversely there may be questions to clarify reports of front-loading purchases before the summer liquidity lull.

EURUSD03

The overall bias is to the upside with the 4-hour chart showing established peak-and-trough progression higher and the spike higher yesterday, which pushed the exchange clearly above the monthly pivot at 1.1087.

More upside is expected, but I’d ideally like to see a break above the May 22 highs at 1.1207 first for confirmation, with a potential target at the R1 monthly pivot at 1.1355.

From a fundamental perspective more upside is also favoured as reports indicate the likelihood of some sort of deal emerging to save a Greek default; whilst data too has been strong.

Today sees the ECB rate meeting; whilst not expected to deliver any policy change it may reveal more details about what conditions might prompt tapering of asset purchases. Conversely there may be questions to clarify reports of front-loading purchases before the summer liquidity lull.

EURUSD03



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