The US session was dominated by further headlines out today from Europe - specifically Greece as per usual. US existing home sales were upbeat coming in at 5.3M, an improvement over last month's 5.0M. The market was mostly upbeat as a result and the S&P 500 in turn saw a strong boost to push 2121 before retreating to strong resistance at 2103.
So far with Yellen remaining fairly dovish US equity markets have been quite upbeat. However, volatility remains a concern with the game of poker being played between Greece and the rest of the Euro-zone, and we could see some wild swings in US equity markets; as well as European equity markets.
Crude oil has so far remained fairly stable as inventories continue to unwind the excess supply that has been in the market for some time. The market at this point is looking slightly bearish and we could see further pushes lower as the market consolidates; with strong support likely to be found at 58.24.
While crude in the previous months has been an absolute star in terms of volatility, its lacklustre consolidation has led to traders looking elsewhere and the focus looks to have been shifted to metals.
The loony continues to remain bullish after its strong rejection of the long-term daily trend line. 1.2380 is currently looking like a very likely candidate for a push-back in the medium term, as the buyers for the Canadian dollars struggle to be heard in the market and previous bears are still looking to unwind positions. With oil stabilising as well, we could certainly see a turn around here for further bullish movements in the USDCAD.
The USDJPY has seen a strong retracement after its most recent push, but has found strong support at 122.432. The market will be focused on today's flash manufacturing PMI with expectations expecting 50.6. A surprise strengthening of the Yen will struggle to find any further ground through 122.432 and liquidity is likely to be found at this level if we see the bears come into the market to push it any lower.
The NZDUSD continues to get crushed lower as the bearish run we have seen over the previous weeks continues to show no signs of letting up. With Westpac consumer sentiment showing a dip to 113.0 it has only continued current momentum for the NZDUSD. Despite many traders now looking for a bottom in the market, it may be a little while off, as Trade Balance data is due out on Thursday and many are expecting a weak result as the large drops in the currency won't have been factored into the latest reading. Any pullbacks on the charts to 0.7000 are likely to be seen as re-entry triggers in the current bearish downtrend.
Looking across at the AUDUSD it has so far resisted getting dragged on by the USD and has been the most promising of the commodity currencies as it has lifted on the back of positive data from last week. Certainly AUD traders will be focused keenly on the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI data which is due out shortly and many are expecting a slight lift. However, the general consensus is that we will see further contraction in the manufacturing sector as China continues to slow at present.
The AUDNZD has been the star performer after hitting parity against the NZD and it has rebounded to touch on resistance at 1.1291. Any push through here would send a strong signal to the market that we can expect further bullish movements to the next resistance level at 1.1586. Certainly the Chinese PMI data due out shortly will be closely watched for AUDNZD traders.
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