While global markets enjoyed a positive start to the week on optimism that a deal between Greece and its creditors was close to being reached, recent history repeated itself once again and by that i mean those claims were soon contradicted and this has since inspired downside pressures across the global markets. The uncertainty over a possible Greek default in just a couple of days time remains and with all attention and pressure on an emergency Eurogroup meeting this Saturday, we could have a really interesting open to Monday's trading.
Uncertainty is a risk that all investors would prefer to avoid but with Saturday's meeting now looking like a potential make-or-break, it wouldn't surprise me it there are some noticeable gaps across the charts when the Asian session commences next week. My greatest concern over this ongoing situation remains that the markets have not priced in a default, and i still think most investors have completely under-priced it. The potential global implications of a default remain largely unclear and bearing in mind buyers were quick to pounce on optimism that a deal was close to being secured just a few days ago, i do wonder if sellers will jump just as fast if headlines reach us that Greece will not be making its repayment to the IMF.
The currency markets are behaving quietly, which is quite understandable given all attention and headlines are focussed on Greece talks. In my opinion, the USD is still looking oversold considering there is going to be an interest rate rise in the upcoming months and i do think trader appetite towards the major currency should return soon. US economic data is improving and the economy is rebounding as the year progresses, which is what the Federal Reserve outlined a few months ago and the improved data should also provide the necessary assurances that the central bank will be raising US interest rates later this year.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.