Oil markets continued the downward trend as expected on the charts. For the most part this was no surprise as I have recently been talking up the prospect of a bearish market in play, and well, certainly the trend is your friend when it comes to commodity markets. With the recent boost in the USD and the lack of genuine demand for oil globally, it has led to a large surplus in the market and very little prospects for future demand so the case for a 30 dollar barrel of WTI oil looks more than possible yet again.
I would expect to see oil continue on the bearish trend and I am now targeting new lower lows on the chart and a push down to weekly support levels at 37.77 which is the only place I really see oil holding up anytime soon. Certainly there is the possibility from here of a push back, but with Iran coming into the equation I don't see the possibility of a genuine push back on the horizon for some time.
European trade balance was weaker than expected/anticipated and the charts quickly reflected that as the EURUSD fell to 1.1076, the current EUR trade balance came in at 21.9B Euros and the market was a little sloppy today when it comes to forgiveness. I had expected further pressure on the Euro but so far there has been little if any. I can't attribute this solely to a slow Monday morning, but what I can say is that there is room for further bearish moves on the chart.
Looking on the charts the ripe support level of 1.1006 is now looking like the best target for bearish traders and I would expect to see a solid touch before further consolidation in the short to medium term.
The kiwi dollar continues to rise and fall like a boat on the charts, but one thing is for certain it has taken on to much water and the future is looking a little grim. Personally I had expected the falls to come quicker but so far it has held up even in the face of much weaker milk prices. With prices now forecast to come in at $3.85 a kg, the future is very much grim and the NZD should reflect that on the charts.
However, the high flying kiwi continues to go through numerous patches of consolidation and this is certainly no different than the usual. I would expect now to see the NZDUSD look to test support levels at around 0.6400. With this in mind break out levels below this are likely to be quite unless we see further negative fundamentals. Recent forecasts suggest though that we may see some sort of stabilization for the economy at this rate but it will take some time. Either way I am watching the NZDUSD quite closely for signs of those bearish runs again.
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