The pound was in fine form in today's trading session as it recently found some strong support in the market at 1.5029 and has since managed to climb the charts. But today's economic release was much better than anyone anticipated as the unemployment rate dipped to 5.3% handing a major boost to the bulls who have so far looked to push aside the worries at hand in the market. The real test now for the GBPUSD will be if there is further positive economic data and also on the daily chart if the market can move above the current 20 day moving average, which may act as dynamic resistance on further higher highs.
A quick glance of the GBPUSD also confirms that we are seeing a tightening of a bearish triangle that has formed so far on the daily chart, and it will be interesting to see if that it can push through the 20 day moving average, how high it can actually go. A push higher is likely to find stiff resistance at 1.5358 and we could see the GBPUSD contained here for some time as the pressure will certainly build on the pound overall.
Flipping the coin and talking about commodities has been popular as of late, and it's metals like silver which are leading the charge, especially if you are very bearish. Recent trends have been extremely bearish which has seen the metal look to push back down to record lows on the back of positive US economic data. So far though it has found some strong support at 14.243 and the market will now be looking to focus to see if this is a double bottom (a common theme in metal markets, where technical's rule) or something else. The H4 makes for sober viewing as it looks more likely that consolidation is the name of the game at present and we could soon see a slip back through support and a shift lower to the next/final level at 14.128; after this breach we could see a run away to at least 14.00 and maybe even lower depending on the markets appetite for speculative commodity trading.
Lastly, just touching on China we have seen some very interesting moves from the economic data today as Industrial production data has slipped to 5.6% y/y which shows that the Chinese manufacturing side of the economy is actually slowing down, despite comments in China. While at the same time retail sales y/y have lifted above expectations and show the transition that China finds itself in as it switches from a heavy manufacturing economy to a proper consumption based economy like the US and UK.
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