Gold has been the master of disaster lately, as market fears have led in part to a revival for the precious metal as China's woes have been the gold bugs gains. The recent rise in part has evaporated in the last few days, not on the basis of an improving global situation, but instead on the fact that the USD has once again become the currency to hold and this in turn has pushed up the value of it. China's improvement in its trade balance has been seen as positive sign as it came in strong at 60.1B, however the problems under the surface run much deeper and it's likely we will continue to feel the Chinese impact on the markets for some time and gold markets.
For gold bulls it's still looking quite promising, as the 20 day moving average has so far been treated as dynamic resistance on the charts, additionally previous resistance at 1082 has been treated as support and downward pressure has retreated after trying to push through. However, the case for lower lows on the daily chart is still there, but with the recent economic troubles it certainly seems like the market is still expecting more damaging news. Resistance levels are likely to be found now at 1109 and 1141, but it would require some further global weakness to get it all really moving.
Oil has also been a mover today as media attention continues to be a major focus on oil markets and the dropping of price. Recent crude oil inventory figures were once again much weaker than expected and have shown once again despite the drop in figures there is still an oversupply in the market place as it came in at 0.23M barrels. This development still leads to issues in the marketplace, and with Iran coming into play we are likely to see a strong supply of cheap oil in the long term.
On the chart oil has so far been quiet today for a change, and the push up higher has been defeated as it failed to even touch resistance at 32.04 and it's likely that over the next week we are going to see lower support levels tested, with the next key level of 29.49 to find itself under pressure. The real aim here for the market could be the very strong support level at 24.96 which is a level I would expect to see hold up under to intense pressure. However, a push down to these levels would cause strong movements in the marketplace and seem unsustainable in the long run.
The USDCAD is also a strong mover on the charts and oils weakness is likely to play into the hands of bulls quite nicely. Many are now expecting the USDCAD to push into 1.45 and I am inclined to agree with a strong USD and the fact the CAD is heavily correlated to oil movements, and so far these have been all downhill.
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