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Will Non-Farm Payrolls Lift USD ?

US non-farm payroll and unemployment for March will be released this Friday at 13:30 BST.

In the past three days, the dollar index was oscillating in the range between 100.30 – 100.65. It edges up this morning during European sessions. Be aware that the release of the US labour market data this afternoon will likely cause volatility for USD, USD crosses, and commodities.

The US unemployment has seen a downtrend since 2010, and has stabilised within the range between 4.6% – 5% in 2016. The average revised figure of non-farm payrolls in the past 6 months was around 183K, which is close to the 180K estimate for March. If the upcoming NFP figure outperforms, or is in line with expectations, then we can expect a probable rate hike in June. However, if it is lower than 140K, then it will likely lower the probability of a rate hike.

The ADP employment change (March), which is regarded as the prediction of NFP, was 263k, better than expectations of 187K, seeing the peak since July 2014. Construction, manufacturing, mining, healthcare, catering, foreign trade and service sectors have seen noticeable job gains. The job creation in construction hit a record high last month.

Be aware that, according to past experience, the market trends sometimes reverse within 1-2 hours after the initial move.

The US President Trump has authorized a huge airstrike with 60 cruise missiles at a Syrian airfield, due to Syria’s use of banned chemical weapons that killed more than 100 people.

We will see a series of crucial UK data for February to be released at 09:30 BST today, including manufacturing production, industrial production, and trade balance. The Bank of England governor Carney will make a speech at 10:00 BST. GBP/USD is currently trading in the range between 1.2400 – 1.2500. Be aware that Carney’s speech will likely cause volatility for Sterling.

The European Central Bank President Draghi made a dovish statement on Thursday, weighed on the Euro. EUR/USD hit a 3-week low of 1.0628 on Thursday. Despite the Eurozone economy is improving, the Eurozone composite PMI for March hit a 6-year high of 56.7. Draghi stated that the substantial monetary accommodation is still appropriate until the end of the year, as the bank has not yet seen sufficient evidence of an inflation pickup.



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