The first round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday, April 23rd. The market consensus for the first-round of the election is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen will both capture enough votes to proceed to the second round, but this is very much still a four-horse race.
Recent polls have shown there is still the possibility that the far-left wing Mélenchon could be a contender and make it into the final two, though vastly different from Le Pen, his policies would be likely to have a similar result to Le Pen with the markets seeing rallies of safe havens (such as gold, the yen and the Swiss franc), with lower European stocks and a falling Euro.
The far-right Le Pen looks set to make the second round, the markets will be keeping any eye out for any possible increase of more than her expected share of vote, this would likely lead to some worry within the markets which are likely to be spooked by the possibility of a Le Pen presidency.
The independent centrist candidate Macron is in favour of free trade and the integrity of the EU. HIs measures aim to change the country’s long-standing bureaucracy and excessive government control to revive the sluggish economic performance. At the moment, Macron or his compatriot Fillion are the best outcome for the Euro and the single market.
Non-voting share and undecided voters are likely to play decisive roles in this election. The IFOP polls showed there are about 31% non-voting and 28% undecided voters. We are a long way from the finish line but the future fate of France and to some extent the Euro itself will be a little closer after Sundays first round of the election.