As we supposed, the last day of previous week passed in consolidation. There were no considerable changes in balance of power of the exchange market. The majority prefers to wait.
This week the focus will be on Greece. There is a week till deadline on the 30th June, the situation is still pending. Parties give contradictory signals. For today an extraordinary summit on Greek issue is scheduled, where the parties will try to bring positions together. Last weekend in a telephone conversation with Merkel, Hollande and Juncker, Tsipras transmitted new proposals of crisis overcoming by Greece. In case of successful negotiations, European currency can realize retained potential of growth.
Against this background economic statistics will play secondary role this week, though there is a series of interesting events. In the Eurozone it is indices of business activity and IFO report. For last four years these indicators haven’t had any strongly expressed tendency, fluctuations are in wide range, so they are non-informative. Market’s reaction to them is momentary and much depends on other accompanying factors. In this case forecasts don’t promise any radical changes and strong movements of euro are possible only in event of considerable discrepancies with forecasts. For dollar main events of this week will be reports on durable goods orders, houses sales and final evaluation of US GDP for the 1st quarter. Here, if we don’t take into account Greek factor, everything depends on actual data. Economic indicators are extremely contradictory, there is no single tendency and they rarely meet expectations. All this makes investors feel nervous, who count on monetary policy tightening by the Fed, what affects dollar.
In the exchange market situation remains uncertain and fully depends on expected events, first of all, on decision of Greek issue. At this moment only this factor restrains euro from growth. However, this growth is still within the frames of correction in general descending trend. Greece and expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed are still main driving forces.
As before, EURUSD pair aims at growth. However, this movement is very unstable, unresolved situation with Greece keeps players strained. We are also indecisive. The pair has already climbed highly and it is difficult to find a point for entry into the market. It is too early to sale the pair. We stay observers.
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