Previous day passed in consolidation, without someone’s advantage. IFO was weaker than expected, US GDP for the 1st quarter was revised upward, though it stayed in negative area. Still, statistics had practically no influence on market’s dynamics, players decided to take a respite and not force events. From our point of view, it is purely technical pause, which doesn’t change anything in the short term. The beginning of the week was dollar’s and it retains chances to build on the progress.
Today the focus will be again on Greece. Two days given for finishing of compromise solutions are expiring, echoes of debates are heard from closed doors, but there is no decision yet. Today an extraordinary meeting of the Eurogroup is scheduled. Despite obvious optimism at the beginning of the week, it is still unclear whether the agreement will be signed at last. Moreover, it is also unclear how the market will react to final agreement if it is reached. Greek saga has exhausted investors strongly, so new wave of euro’s sale after decrease of stress, caused by wearing negotiations. At American session statistics have no great significance, but some reports attract attention. Forecasts on personal expenses seem especially prospective – the indicator can show the maximum of monthly growth of expenses in this year. For dollar economic background remains positive, Greek factor remains unclear.
As recommended, yesterday we sold euro for 1.1200, stop remains at 1.1290, short-term aims are also unchanged at 1.1090 – 1.1110. We are waiting for renewed growth of dollar. Our point of view can change in case of closure of the day by EURUSD above 1.1300 today.
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