IFC Markets - Analytics

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USD Sentiment Bullish With EUR Short Positions Rising

The latest report by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to the February 3 showed that investors built their net long position on the US dollar from $44.25 billion the previous week to $45.76 billion against the major currencies. All the major currencies were held short against USD, with the bulk composed of short EUR. The EUR bearish sentiment has increased, with the net short reaching $28.1bn, widening over the previous week by $1.9bn and registering the largest short bet on the euro since 2012. The EUR sentiment deterioration is not surprising given the results of Greece’s elections on January 25 where the anti-austerity opposition party Syriza won the snap election, pledging to renegotiate Greece’s debt with international creditors and ease austerity measures. At the same time JPY, CHF, and GBP net short positions narrowed with both long and short positions falling, reflecting lower investor appetite for risk in the environment of elevated uncertainty after the SNB surprise abandonment of its euro cap policy. On the other hand, AUD sentiment deteriorated reflecting investor expectations of a possible rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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