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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 11, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a month high at 119.62 on Tuesday. Liquidity is thin in Asia on Wednesday as financial markets in Japan are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen and yen-funded carry trades as the global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 7.12% to 17.23; S&P 500 rose 1.07% to close at 2,068.59 overnight) on increasing hopes for a compromise between Greece's new government and its international creditors. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.000% versus 1.948% late Monday) and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.73 versus 94.51 early Tuesday) on more-than-expected 5.028 million U.S. December job openings (versus forecast 4.99 million) and sell-yen orders from Japan's importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise drop in U.S. NFIB index of small business optimism to 97.9 in January from 100.4 in December (versus forecast for rise to 101.0) and smaller-than-expected 0.1% rise in U.S. December wholesale inventories (versus forecast 0.3%) and drop in U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 47.5 in February from 51.5 in January. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan's exporters.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, a five-day moving average is above a 15-day moving average and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.20 and the second target at 120.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.30. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118. The pivot point is at 118.80.

Resistance levels:
120.20
120.70
130
Support levels:
118.30
118
117.65

Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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