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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 29, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY amid increased risk aversion as the Greece crisis escalates after Greek PM Tsipras on Friday called for a snap referendum to be held on July 5, eurozone's finance ministers refused the Greek request to extend the current bailout program beyond its expiry on June 30, while the European Central Bank said it will freeze the level of emergency loans for Greek banks at Friday's level of EUR89 billion, paving the way for Greek authorities to close banks and impose capital controls. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by higher US Treasury yields and positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.21 versus 95.21 early Friday) on flows to haven dollar and healthier-than-expected US June final University of Michigan consumers sentiment index of 96.1 (versus forecast 95.0), demand from Japanese importers, andultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. "We expect a very strong risk averse tone to pervade global markets as soon as Asian opens for trading and throughout much of the week: equities lower (perhaps 2-4% for key markets), bond yields lower (perhaps 15-25bp for core markets) and the likes of the USD, JPY, and CHF to be very well supported," Westpac says.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turning bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.55. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 122.10. The pivot point stands at 123.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124 and the second target at 124.60.

Resistance levels: 124 124.30 124.60

Support levels: 122.55 122.10 121.75



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