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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 30, 2015

The euro rebounded from its lows managed to close above the gap. The pair managed to close with big gains.

The pair gave a strong recovery after 1.5% gap managed to regain the lost moving averages. On a closing basis, the pair was unable to close above 100Dema. At today's Asian session, it was trading at 1.1211 compared to Monday's closing price of 1.1236 rejected at 100Dema. The Germany inflation rate, measured by the consumer price index, is expected to be 0.3% in June 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that the consumer price index is expected to decline by 0.1% in May 2015. Besides, data on German CPI flash estimate from INE, the annual inflation is due today.

As there was some improvements in the Greek situation, I guess there is some more room for talks to go further. If it happens, the euro will rally towards 1.1700 or 1.1900 immediately. Today traders eye German retail sales and unemployment data, euro CPI estimate and unemployment rate. Greek PM Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum this Sunday. So, we expect wild moves next Monday. This week, the volatility continues ahead of the weekend event.

Technical view: The pair managed to trade above 20Wsma at 1.1040. It closed above 100 and 50Dsma. These are bullish factors which influence the pair. Bears managed to hold 100Dema and 20Dsma seen at 1.1250 and 1.1260 respectively. On the down side, strong support is found at 1.0820, which is the previous daily swing low. Now, bulls must close above another swing high of 1.1460. In the daily chart, the pair made a double top with a lower high between 1.1437 and 1.1460. Until the pair closes above 1.1460, bears are seen to be trying to breach the support of 1.0820 initially and to re-test the level of 1.0550 later.

Intraday support is found at 1.1170 and 1.1140. Until the pair trades above 1.1140, bulls will try to close above 1.1260 20Dsma. The previous double top pattern is seen at 1.1380 and the parallel resistance is seen at 1.1460. Today bulls can aim for 1.1340, 1.1380, and 1.1410. Selling opportunity is available below 1.1160, safe selling is expected below 1.1130 with targets at 1.1110, 1.1060, and 1.1010.

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