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Analytical review of the currency pair AUD/USD on 01.03.2016

AUD/USD

Technical data of the currency pair:

Previous closing: 0.7142;
Daily range: 0.7109-0.7191;
Opening: 0.7142;
52- week range: 0.6824-0.8168;
Annual revenue: -8.55%;
Change in % for the previous day: 0.18.

Analytical review:

  • Last week, the AUD was traded in the range of 0.7160-0.7255. Last Friday the currency broke out and consolidated below the level of 0.7160.
  • Positive US macro-economic statistics released last week showed that volume of orders for durable goods increased by 1.8%. Over three months GDP rose by 1% on annual basis, which was above analysts’ forecast of 0.6%.
  • US statistics released yesterday showed that according to the US Associations of realtors volume of outstanding housing contracts to sell fell by 2.5% in January.
  • “Commitments of Traders” shows the increase of the short positions up to 37652 contracts.
  • This week important US statistics will be released, which can have impact on the exchange rate of the currencies. On Friday 4 March non-farm payrolls will become known.

Summary:

  • Despite poor data on the US housing market the USD continue to strengthen against major currencies amid positive US statistics released last week. According to “COT” large speculators think that the AUD is not strong enough.
  • In the near future the AUD will weaken versus the USD. It is recommended to open short positions.

Trading tips for the currency pair AUD/USD

Long-term trading:
Prior to publication of non-farm payrolls on Friday the 4th of March exchange rate of the Australian dollar is unlikely to change. At the moment we recommend to refrain from long-term transactions on the pair AUD/USD. We recommend to enter the market on Friday after the release of statistics and retesting of the key support and resistance levels and in case of respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action).


Medium-term trading: On the chart with the timeframe 1Н a classical reversal pattern “Double Top” has been formed. If the price maintains the levels of 0.7160-0.7195 and in case of respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Risk per trade is less than 2% of capital. Stop-order can be placed at the level of 0.7190. Take profit should be placed in parts at the levels of 0.7110, 0.7060 and 0.7015 0.73500.7015 0.7350 with the use of trailing stop.




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