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Analytical review of the currency pair NZD/USD on 04.03.2016

NZD/USD

Technical data of the currency pair:

Previous closing: 0.6724;
Daily range: 0.6715-0.6761;
Opening: 0.6724;
52- week range: 0.6233-0.7752;
Annual revenue: -11.30%;
Change in % for the previous day: 0.73.


Analytical review:

  • Since the beginning of February the currency is traded in the range of 0.6570-0.6750. NZD quietly reacted to the US statistics released yesterday.
  • It became known yesterday composite ISM index in the USA fell from 53.5 to 53.4. Industrial orders rose by 1.6%, which was below analysts’ expectations of 2.0%.
  • China is important strategic partner of New Zealand. Decline in the Chinese activity indices puts pressure on the currency dynamics.
  • “Commitments of Traders” shows ambiguous situation. Large speculators do not have a common opinion about the NZD. The number of long positions has reduced by 2535 contracts. Short positions fell by 264 contracts.
  • Important US data on non-farm payrolls will become known today. It can have a strong impact on the further development of events.

Summary:

  • At the moment the currency is traded in the zone of strong resistance levels of 0.6750-0.6770. Ambiguous US statistics puts strong pressure on the currency movement. According to “COT” large speculators do not have a common opinion about the NZD.
  • Prior to publication of “non-farm payrolls” changes in the trend are not expected. We recommend to enter the market after speculative operations at the smaller timeframes.

Trading tips for the currency pair NZD/USD

Long-term trading:
Prior to publication of non-farm payrolls today, the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar is likely to remain unchanged. At the moment we recommend to refrain from long-term transactions on the pair NZD/USD. It is better to enter the market after the release of statistics and retesting of the key support and resistance levels and in case of respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action).


Short-term trading: At the moment the currency is traded between the local support and resistance levels of 0.6715 – 0.6755. We recommend to enter the marker after breaking down and testing these levels. The positions can be opened near the signal line, and the nearest support/resistance levels. Risk per trade is less than 2.5% of capital. Stop-order can be placed slightly above/below the signal line. Take profit should be placed in parts of по 50%, 30% and 20% with the use of trailing stop.




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