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UK: Economic fallout has yet to be seen - BBH Sandeep Kanihama

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the economic fallout of Brexit has yet to be seen and will take some time as the data is not available in real time. Key Quotes“This week's data, the June service (and construction) PMI and May industrial production will be helpful in setting the base case ahead of this (potential) shock.  The important takeaway is that the UK economy appears to have lost some momentum in Q2, but in terms of pace of growth, peaked in 2015, well before the referendum became an issue.  The debate among most economists seems to be whether the growth was 0.3% or 0.4% in Q2.  Many are now looking for a small contraction in Q3.The Bank of England is providing billions of sterling liquidity for the banking system.  BOE Governor Carney confirmed market suspicions that the central bank would likely ease policy in the next couple of months.  It may begin next week by waiving an increase in regulatory capital (counter-cyclical capital buffer).”



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