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EURUSD: Losing steam below big resistance levels

 

Subdued trading leading up to an FOMC statement is nothing new but, technically, I see potential for a swing high to form and for a decent zone of resistance to present areas to consider fading into.




Currently above the 50 day MA price has carved out a range between 1.104 and 1.138. Price action within this range is choppy with lots of overlapping candles, which raises the odds of the recent gains being corrective against the initial drop from the 1.146 highs.

The 1.146 high is the precise 161.8% projection from the 1.0431 high and, a little above here, we also have the 50% retracement from the 1.048 lows to the 1.256 high. Add to this horizontal resistance at 1.3876 and 1.15358 then we have a decent argument for these price to cap before losses resume. 

In the event we do see a break higher above 1.1538 then we have Monthly R2 and 61.8% retracement as a likely target and / or reversal point. 

Near-term there is potential for strength as the prior three days have produced a Morning Star Reversal Pattern. The trouble here though is prior to this pattern we have two Shooting Star's, which even if breached, will be then be presented with further levels of resistance.

Therefore, on a reward to risk basis, I would prefer a short position leading up to the FOMC statement whilst also making the assumption that Greece will have a negative impact upon the Euro. The timing of Greece is difficult but the FOMC statement at least presents a time we may see USD strength if is it slightly hawkish, as I suspect. 

Alternatively we could wait for a break below 1.10 to assume a run back down towards the multi-year lows, as this would be clear of the 50 day MA, Monthly Pivot.


 



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