ThinkForex - Analytics

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DAX threatening to break back above the 200 MA

For several months now I have been calling a top on equities and, for a while at least, looked like a good call. Whilst I am still of the view that a significant correction is due for global markets I am coming around to the feeling it may need to go on ice as we approach December's FED and ECB meetings.




With the expectation of ECB lowering interest rates and / or providing more QE stimulus it is having a negative impact on Euro crosses and net positive for stocks (which tend to perform better with low or negative interest rates). 

As pointed out in today's video, I exepect Euro to move lower over the coming week/s but it is at risk of a bounce higher first, as the sell-off looks over-extended. If this occurs then we should see DAX also retrace (lower) which may provide potential to position yourself for the anticipated bullish break above the sloping resistance from the all-time highs. 

I break above resistance could see it run towards the 13k mark and slightly above this milestone we have a tight confluence of resistance which comprises of the monthly R1 pivot and 161.8% projection from the corrective low.

Whilst my bias is not for an eventual break higher I am not yet decided if this will eventually break back above the all-time highs. However if we are to see a break below 10,580 support before the sloping resistance breaks then we could in fact be headed for the longer-term bullish trendline around 9,700-800.



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