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Negative Correlation between the Chinese Yuan and Dow Jones Average Soars

The biggest shock for equities in 2015 was the surprise devaluation of the Chinese Yuan in early August.

More than any other event, and certainly more than any statistic, official or otherwise, the currency swoon alerted the markets to the manifest dangers facing the Chinese economy.

Today's second devaluation, while far less in percentage terms, is even more meaningful because it indicates a long term policy.

Beijing has decided that the international risks of a weaker Yuan are far less than the domestic unrest possible from a collapse in manufacturing and employment.

The Yuan is now trading at levels not seen in over four years, and has lost over 60 percent of its 2010-2014 gain against the Dollar.

If the devaluation of the Yuan is signalling a far more serious economic situation in China than previously admitted in Beijing or acknowledged on Wall Street, then the repricing of worldwide equities is just getting started.

The gap between the onshore Yuan (CNY) and the offshore Yuan (CNH), traded with government sanction in Hong Kong, widened to the largest on record. 

Joseph Trevisani
Chief Market Strategist
WorldWideMarkets

Charts: Bloomberg

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