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Technical Analysis – USDCHF in bullish mode but outlook is bearish

USDCHF jumped by 1% today as it attempts to break out of a downwards slide that’s been in progress since May 27. RSI has risen to 50 and the stochastic oscillator is also indicating a bullish bias in the near term as the %K line is has crossed above the %D line.

Medium-term outlook still looks bearish though as prices trade below the Ichimoku cloud with the bottom of the cloud providing resistance at 0.94.  The Tenkan-sen line moving above the Kijun-sen line provides only a weak bullish signal as both are below the Ichimoku cloud.

Looking at the moving averages, the 50- and 100-day moving averages recently crossed below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish sign. If USDCHF resumes a downward trend, the next support will be the May 7 low of 0.9070.  A break below this level would put it back on the longer-term downtrend that started in mid-March.

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