George Saravelos from the Deutsche Bank expressed the view that Greece can not carry out the next payment to the International Monetary Fund even if the agreement between the country and group of creditors will be reached and signed. High probability to miss a payment the IMF caused the potential necessity of such a decision by holding a referendum or approval by the Greek Parliament. The baseline scenario of Deutsche Bank suggests that a 60% chance the agreement between Greece and the creditors will be achieved. The probability that a payment will receive timely approval by the Parliament and the IMF will be paid on time is 30%. The fact that the expected agreement between Greece and the creditors have a very big political weight. The ruling majority may refuse to accept it, demanding a change in the ruling coalition. Deutsche Bank experts forecast a 40% chance that an agreement will not be reached. This will be followed in favor of the non-payment of the tranche of the IMF and the introduction of capital controls. Even if in this case, a technical default will not come immediately, the ECB will significantly restrict Greek banks access to ELA (emergency credit assistance program) that whatever lead to a very sharp increase premium per risk.
Deutsche Bank: a 40% chance that Greek situation will not get a successful resolution