The impetuous US dollar increasing could mark Oil quotations down to $20 area. Seems not enough USD and oil hold inverse correlation, but the black gold oscillation amplitude exceeds the American currency oscillation amplitude. According to our calculations USD increasing on 5% might causes Oil quotations drop down to 10-25%. Black gold reduction below $60 was triggered by world reserves growth, but a decline from $55 to $35 is a consequence of the US currency strengthening. In view of continuing USD growth – $20-$25 a barrel scenario seems very much real.
Morgan Stanley: if USD will rise on 5% – oil at $20- $25