The release of better-than-expected UK employment report on Wednesday helped GBP to register gains against majority of its counterparts. Also on Thursday, GBP is trading with some minor gains as investors now await for the release of UK monthly retail sales data, scheduled for release on Friday. Given the backdrop, here is a technical overview for GBPJPY, GBPAUD, GBPNZD and GBPCAD.
Extending its rebound from 200-day SMA support and a subsequent strength above 100-day SMA resistance, the pair on Wednesday decisively cleared a descending trend-line resistance near 183.00 mark and now clearly seems to be headed towards 185.00 mark resistance, nearing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Oct. - Dec. 2014 up-swing. Moreover, a decisive strength above 185.00 mark has the potential to lift the pair further beyond 187.00 mark towards its next major resistance near 187.40-50 zone. Meanwhile, a drop back and sustained weakness below 183.00 mark now seems to find support at 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 181.50 region. This closely followed by 100-day SMA resistance turned support, currently near 180.70-60 zone. The 100-day SMA now seems to act as near-term strong support for the pair and only a decisive break back below this strong support might trigger short-term bearish momentum for the pair.
The pair continues facing strong resistance near 1.9900 mark, representing the upper trend-line resistance of a well-established ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. Should the pair manage to conquer this strong resistance, it seems more likely to clear 2.000 psychological mark resistance and move towards 2.0200-20 resistance area. Alternatively, a reversal from current level is likely to find immediate support near 1.9750 level. Break below this immediate support seems to extend the pull-back towards an important support near 1.9640-30 area, which if broken might extend the corrective move further towards 1.9420-1.9400 support zone.
Continuing with its sharp recovery from the lowest level since April 2014, touched in early Jan., the pair now seems to be consolidating at higher levels. From current levels, 2.0460-40 area, which is followed by support near 2.0420-400 area, seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. However, major downside support is pegged near 2.0330-300 level, which if broken seems to trigger a sharp corrective move back towards 2.0150-40 region. On the upside, strength above 2.0570-80 immediate resistance is likely to get extended towards 2.0700-10 resistance area and further towards a very important resistance near 2.0800 mark. A decisive break above 2.0800 mark clearly seems to pave way for continuing the upward trajectory towards a very important resistance near 2.1040-50 area, marking multi-year high touched in Nov. 2011, May 2012 and Sept. 2014.
After Wednesday's up-move the pair is comfortably trading above 1.9200 mark and now seems to approach the multi-year high level touched in the previous week. Should the pair manage to clear this multi-year high resistance near 1.9300-30 area, it could easily extend with its near-term appreciating move further towards testing 1.9900 resistance area, with 1.9800-20 area possibly acting as intermediate resistance. However, reversal back from 1.9300 resistance area and a subsequent drop back below 1.9200 mark could possibly be followed by some profit taking move, initially towards 1.9150-40 intermediate horizontal support and eventually towards a very important support near 1.9000 mark. Further, reversal from 1.9300 level and a subsequent drop back below 1.9000 mark seems to confirm retest of Feb. 2015 lows support near 1.8700 mark.
Senior Market Analyst
At any use of the analytical material taken from the site of company Admiral Markets, and the secondary publication on any other resources, the rights to intellectual property for a dealing center «Admiral Markets», reference to the company site is obligatory.
Follow me on twitter @Fx_Haresh for latest market updates