The Swiss Franc (CHF) on Wednesday inched higher against USD and JPY but traded weak against GBP and AUD. On Thursday, however, CHF is trading with some strength with majority of its counterparts as investor now look forward to important US CPI and GDP data releases, scheduled on Thursday and Friday respectively.
Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on CHFJPY, USDCHF, GBPCHF and AUDCHF.
Following a sharp move post SNB surprise decision, the pair has been declining steadily and has now moved closer to its previous strong resistance now turned support near 124.00 mark, also coinciding with 61.8% fib. retracement level of the pair's big up-surge on Jan. 15. Failure to hold this immediate support is likely to increase the vulnerability of the pair to continue drifting lower towards its next major support near 121.20-121.00 zone with 123.30 level and 122.00 region acting as intermediate support. On the upside, the pair is likely to confront immediate resistance 126.50 horizontal level, which is closely followed by resistance at 50% Fib. retracement level near 127.00-20 zone. A decisive move back above 50% Fib. retracement level has the potential to lift the pair back towards testing 130.00 mark resistance, also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level.
The pair seems to face some resistance in sustaining its strength above 0.9500 mark. 0.9500 resistance gets confirmed should the pair drops below its immediate support near 0.9420-0.9400 zone, marking 61.8% Fib. retracement level of its big downfall on Jan. 15. A decisive weakness below 0.9400 mark is likely to accelerate the pair's downfall back towards testing sub-0.9200 level, its next important support marked by 50% Fib. retracement level, with intermediate support near 0.9320-0.9300 region. Alternatively, should the pair manage to sustain its strength above 0.9500 mark resistance, it clearly seems to appreciate further towards reclaiming its previous strong resistance near 0.9700-20 area.
On 4-hourly chart, the pair remains within a well-established short-term ascending trend-channel and is currently trading close to the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.4650 level. Weakness below 1.4650 is likely to be followed by further decline towards an important support near 1.4300 mark, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its recovery witnessed post the sharp fall led by SNB decision. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.4720-50 area remains immediate resistance to conquer, which if cleared has the potential to provide the required momentum to take the pair back towards 1.4950-70 resistance area, nearing the very important 1.5000 mark.
The pair seems to give-up some of its gains following its recovery to 0.7500 mark but has managed to hold 0.7430-25 immediate horizontal support. Until the pair continues holding above 0.7430 it seems more likely to make an attempt to retest 0.7500 resistance, which if conquered could lift the pair towards 0.7630-40 resistance area, marked by the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation visible on 4-hourly chart. Further, on decisive strength above 0.7650 level, marking a break-out above the ascending channel, the pair could be headed towards 0.7825-30 zone to partially fill the down-gap post SNB's surprise move. Meanwhile, a below 0.7430-20 immediate support could immediately be followed by weakness towards 0.7350 intermediate support and could get extended till 0.7270-50 important support marking the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel. Moreover, a decisive weakness and close below the ascending channel might be categorized as bearish Flag chart pattern, suggesting a possible resumption of downward trajectory for the pair.
Senior Market Analyst
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