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    Technical Outlook: USDCAD, USDCHF and CADCHF

    US Dollar rallied considerable ever since the optimist labor market details, published last weekend, supported speculations that the Federal Reserve might go for interest rate hike sooner than later. On Tuesday, the greenback tested one month high against its Canadian counterpart while it is trading near the highest level since the post-SNB decline against its CHF counterpart. US Retail Sales and the Canadian Employment numbers are likely to provide important data points for determining near-term USD and CAD moves while there isn’t anything important scheduled for publishing from Switzerland.

    Also Read: Tepid Economic Calendar To Restrict Big-Moves In The Forex Market

    Given the backdrop, the following is a brief technical overview of USDCAD, USDCHF and CADCHF.


    Last week, USDCAD broke above its symmetrical triangle formation, signaling the up-trend. The pair witnessed a bit of pullback on Monday while extended its up-move on Tuesday towards 1.2700 horizontal resistance, breaking which January high, near 1.2800 mark could become its consecutive resistance before it rallies to 1.2930 resistance. On the break of 1.2930, the pair can rally towards 1.3200, while 1.3000 psychological magnet could provide intermediate resistance to the pair. On the downside, resistance turned descending trend-line, forming part of triangle, could provide strong support to the pair near 1.2500 before it tests the 1.2400 mark, encompassing 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its October 2014 – January 2015 up-move, and the support line of the triangle. On the sustained break of 1.2400, the pair can test 50-day SMA, near 1.2300 at present, breaking which pair’s chances of near-term up-move get negated and it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 1.2150 and 1.2100 supports.


    Even if the USCHF rallied to near two month high, 1.0020 horizontal resistance level, also accompanied by overbought RSI, could restrict near-term up-move of the pair, breaking which the pair can trigger its rally towards January high, near 1.0240. On the sustained trading above 1.0240, it can rally towards 1.0400 mark. On the downside, 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its January decline, near 0.9760 could become strong support for the pair, breaking which 0.9600 and the 0.9540 – 0.9530 support-zone, including 100-day SMA & horizontal support, could determine near-term downtrend of the pair. Should the pair break this level, chances of testing 0.9450 and the 0.9280 gets stronger.


    With comparatively weaker CHF, the CADCHF surpassed its 50-day SMA on a closing basis, for the first time after the SNB debacle. On Tuesday, it surpassed 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its January decline, near 0.7830, and is very likely to test 0.7900 horizontal mark before rallying to 0.7950. Should it break the 0.7950 on a closing basis, the resistance line of the ascending trend-channel, near 0.7990, could provide a pullback into the pair’s rally. Shold the pair strengthens above 0.7990, also closes above 0.8000 mark, it can test 76.4% Fibo. near 0.8150 in a quick up-move. On the downside, support line of the channel, near 0.7730, and the 50-day SMA, near 0.7680, are likely immediate support levels for the pair. OPn the break of 0.7680, the 50% Fibo. near 0.7585, could restrict pair’s decline towards sub-0.7450 support levels.


    Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets events @Fx_Anil


    Anil Panchal
    Market Analyst
    Admiral Markets

    At any use of the analytical material taken from the site of company Admiral Markets, and the secondary publication on any other resources, the rights to intellectual property for a dealing center «Admiral Markets», the reference to the company site is obligatory.

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