With the better print of Australian labor market details, published on Thursday, the Aussie registered considerable strength against majority of its counterparts. However, it failed to gain against New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after the RBNZ avoided announcing any rate cuts with hawkish words. On Friday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) rolled back some of its gains against Canadian Dollar (CAD) and GBP while strengthened against its New Zealand counterpart. Moreover, with the lesser economics left for publishing market players are likely to read Canadian labor market details and US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index to forecast market moves for the rest of the week.
Meanwhile, here’s brief technical overview of AUDCAD, AUDNZD & GBPAUD.
Even if the AUDCAD rallied to week’s high on Thursday, the descending trend-line, stretched from early February, restricted further up-move of the pair near 0.9790 – 0.9800 mark. From the current level, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its December – January up-move, near 0.9740, becomes immediate support for the pair, breaking which chances are higher that the pair drifts lower towards 0.9650 support, encompassing 61.8% Fibo. On the sustained break of 0.9650, the horizontal support, near 0.9580 – 0.9590, could limit pair’s decline. Alternatively, a sustained break of trend-line resistance, currently at 0.9780, could fuel the pair’s rally towards 38.2% Fibo, near 0.9825, breaking which 0.9870 and 0.9960 are likely important resistances for the pair. On the break of 0.9960, the pair could immediately rally towards breaking previous high of 1.0083 mark and could surpass 1.0100.
Yesterday, the AUDNZD failed to sustain 1.0400 break, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci of retracement of its Jan – Feb decline, and is likely to re-test 1.0480 resistance, including 38.2% Fibo. On the break of 1.0480, the 1.0520 level, including descending trend-line connecting October 2014 highs to January 2015 highs, could restrict near-term up-move by the pair. Should the pair breaks 1.0520 on a closing basis, it can immediately rally towards 1.0615 and the 1.0730 resistance levels. On the downside, a break of 1.0400 mark could make the pair test 1.0340 and the February lows, near 1.0280. Further, a sustained break of 1.0280 could force the pair to test 61.8% FE of its October – January decline, near 1.0200 mark.
Irrespective of GBPAUD’s decline below 1.9300 mark, the pair seems supported by the 50-day SMA near 1.9290 mark, breaking which the pair can immediately decline to 1.9200 mark. Further, a break of 1.9200 mark could make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards testing 1.8950 important support, including 100-day SMA and the support-line of the ascending trend-channel ranging from early September. A close below 1.8950 negates the pair’s chances of near-term up-move and can make it test 1.8650 level. Alternatively, 1.9450 and the 1.9680 are likely immediate resistances before the pair moves to 1.9800. On the break of 1.9800, the pair can rally to 2.0000 mark and test the resistance line of the channel, near 2.0100, in further rise.
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