With lesser economic events to track, the current holiday shortened week continued witnessing restricted forex market volatility. The Canadian Dollar continued trading mixed due to weaker Crude Oil prices, its main export. The Loonie, as it is nicknamed, strengthened against its US and European counterparts during the early weekdays while it lost some of its grounds against the AUD and the GBP.
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Meanwhile, the following is a brief technical overview of USDCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD and AUDCAD.
Even if the ascending trend-channel formation continue signaling the USDCAD up-move, the pair is currently testing the lower line of the short-term symmetrical triangle formation, near 1.1575, a break of which is more likely to trigger a pullback into USDCAD up-move towards 61.8% FE of its September – October up-move, near the November highs of 1.1460. However, the pair’s decline below 1.1460 seems limited and it is likely to reverse from the support line of the channel, near the 1.1380 support. On the closing break of 1.1380, the pair can test 1.1220 support level with 1.1300 psychological support being intermediate rest. Alternatively, upper line of the triangle near 1.1640 and the multiple highs marked near 1.1670 together with the 100% FE, bear 1.1680, are likely levels that can limit near-term up-move of the pair. On the break of 1.1680, the upper line of the broader ascending trend channel, near 1.1770, could become a reversing point for the USDCAD up-move.
Having breached the 100-day EMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – November decline, the EURUCAD continue trading down and is likely to test horizontal support line, near the psychological level of 1.4000, breaking which the November lows near 1.3890 and the 1.3800 levels are likely rests for the pair. On the break of 1.3800 level, the pair becomes vulnerable to extend its decline towards sub-1.3700 supports. Alternatively, 1.4200 and the 1.4280 are likely important resistance levels for the pair, breaking which it can rally towards its medium-term, resistance-zone of 1.4430 – 1.4440.
GBPCAD kept trading near 100-day EMA support and is likely to test 1.7960, including 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its February – September decline. Further, an extended decline below 1.7960 by the pair can witness 1.7860 and the 23.6% Fibo, near 1.7800 as supports before plunging to 1.7710 levels. On the upside, a break of 50% Fibo level, near the psychological 1.8100 level, the pair can rally towards 1.8180 and the 61.8% Fibo. near 1.8240 before testing the descending trend-line resistance, near 1.8370. Considering the oscillators the pair is more likely to trade downwards; however, broader weakness of CAD as compared to GBP can limit the pair’s decline.
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Descending trend-line, stretched from early November, continue signaling the AUDCAD decline towards the 0.9410 – 0.9400 important support zone, breaking which the pair is more likely to extend its decline towards 0.9330, 0.9270 and the 2013 lows of 0.9173. However, a reversal from the support zone is more expected and the pair can test 0.9600 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2013 to April 2014 up-move, near 0.9630, should it break the descending trend-line resistance, near 0.9525. An extended rally surpassing the 0.9630 can fuel the pair towards 100-day EMA and 50% Fibo. near 0.9760.
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