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Euro/Dollar Trading Way Off the Trend


Monday went against Friday. The sellers allowed the bulls to win back all of their losses which they had incurred after the release of a labor market report from the US. The euro/dollar completed a reversal northwards and renewed to 1.1330.

On Monday the economic calendar was bare. The yield on the 10-year German bonds was up around its maximums for the year, thus offering a hand to the euro. Bloomberg aided the eurobulls to reach the U3 line through quoting a French official, who said that Barak Obama had stated that the dollar was too strong and is a problem for the American economy. The President’s administration refuted this information, but it was too late. The growth of the euro had hastened above 1.1190 from the protective stops that had been set off.

The euro/dollar is now way off the trend, in the zone above the U3. The euro rate went up by 180 degrees from a minimum of 1.1114. It’s not the first time I say that the price never stays long outside the MA canal. The euro is trading around 1.1309 against the Asian maximum of 1.1330. I’m awaiting a rebound to 1.1250.

From today’s news it’s worth picking out the data on the UK’s balance of trade and GDP for the Eurozone. The question of the Grexit is still putting pressure on the euro. I wouldn’t exclude the market swinging by the trend line. Let’s have a look at the Daily tab.


GBP/USD Hourly Graph


On Monday the eurobulls covered Friday’s fall. This was a bad sign for the sellers since the risks of a break in the fundamental trend have shot up. The euro closed above the trend line set at the closing price. If 1.1350 will be passed, the road to 1.1466 will open up and 1.18 will be round the next corner. For the situation to stay under the sellers’ control, they need to take the EURUSD rate back beneath 1.12. Let’s have a look at the Weekly tab.


GBP/USD Daily Graph


The sellers didn’t manage to take advantage of Friday’s strong report on the American labor market. On Monday they lost all of their points. The euro/dollar rebounded from the lower limit of the canal, so it’s better to forget about 1.0818 for now. Better wait for a break in 1.1025.


GBP/USD Weekly Graph

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