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Short-term Trading Idea FX USD/CAD – Bull Speculation: Expected Growth From Trend Line

Trading opportunity on currency pair: on Thursday after a recoil on the daily, a hammer or pinbar formed. On Friday the 1.2250 maximum was broken. A reverse pattern started to come off. The first target is 1.2472 (the trend line). The second is 1.2666 (from 1st June idea).

I did an idea on the Canadian on 1st June. Back then the USD/CAD had grown by 61.8% from a fall from 1.2834 to 1.1919. Two pinbars formed throughout Thursday and Friday and they indicated a correction to the support zone of 1.2351-1.2400. After a recoil, I was expecting a growth with a 1.2666 target (maximum from 10th April). As a matter of fact, the Canadian corrected quite a way lower: to 1.2170.

The USD/CAD was at 1.23 for a few days. The market was waiting for the FOMC to convene. The USD/CAD rate reacted to the decision of the US Fed by falling to 1.2220. The FOMC members decided to leave their monetary policy unchanged. The base rate was kept at 0.25%. The Federal Reserve reassessed their GDP forecast for 2015 downwards and gave the understanding that any interest rate rise will be gradual and this was unpleasant news for the dollar bulls.

In the first half of Thursday the bear set-up on the dollar was maintained after the FOMC meeting. The fall of the dollar headed all the way to 1.2127.

In the second half of the day the US dollar won back its losses against the Canadian dollar. This was in connection with a correction of positions and the publication of statistics from the US. Inflation data came out worse than expected, although applications for unemployment benefits were down. Later on, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank report for June business activity came out and had noticeably improved; reaching 15.2 in comparison with 6.7 the month earlier (forecasted 8.0).

On Friday the USD/CAD grew to 1.2269 after the release of weak retail sales figures for Canada. The retail sales fell by 0.1% in April, thereby not meeting the expected 0.7% growth.

So, what do we have? First of all, the dollar recoiled by 61.8% from a 1.1919 to 1.2562 growth. Secondly, on Thursday a hammer (reverse candle) formed. On the hourly time period the hammer looks like an upside down head and shoulders. Thursday’s maximum was broken on Friday.

Judging by the indicators, there’s a decent reserve for growth. Although, it’s not yet known how the dollar bulls will act because of Greece. The first target is 1.2472 (the trend line). The second is 1.2666 (from 1st June idea).

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