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Short-term Trading Idea FX AUD/SGD – Bear Speculation: Developing on 29th June Idea

Trading opportunities on currency pair: Friday’s AUD/SGD rate departed from the triangle and fell to 1.0107. There’s not much left to parity and the 1.0053 target. As soon as the lower limit of the A channel has been passed, I’ll be expecting a drop in the rate of the AUD/SGD to 0.9680.

Things have fallen in such a way that the Australian dollar saw a significant reduction in its value against all pairs on Friday. Due to this I decided to do my trading ideas on three pairs which involve the Australian dollar: AUD/SGD, AUD/USD, AUD/NZD. Very interesting graphs have formed across these pairs.

Due to the falling price of iron ore and weak stats from Australia and China the Australian dollar is really under pressure. Take a look in the idea on the AUD/USD: in it I explain the reasons for the fall of the Aussie.

Only last week, on 29th June, did I do an idea on the AUD/SGD. The price has been in a triangle for over 20 days. The triangle has an extending of the trend figure and so I expect a depart of the price downwards to 1.0053. On Friday the sellers successfully passed the 1.0242-1.0292 support zone. The AUD/SGD fell to 1.0098. The price stopped 54 points short of the target.

This week’s key event for the Aussie is the RBA giving an announcement. Other than the meeting, on Tuesday a May credit report for the private sector will be out, on Thursday some data on May external trade will be released and on Friday we will get to have a look at retail sales figures for May.

Market participants’ mood towards the Australian dollar could change after the RBA convenes on Tuesday. However, for a start it’s worth looking at how the market opens after the Greek referendum. If the dollar closes down, the AUD will be dragged up with the other key pairs.

For the moment I expect the AUD/SGD to fall to 1.0053. If the lower limit of the A channel will be passed, I’ll be waiting for a drop in the rate to 0.9680. So why 0.9680? Because it’s the 161.8% fibo level from the A channel.

If we take the 161.8% fibo from the upper line of the A channel, a target on a parallel line is right beneath it at 0.9607. As a result, two price levels are formed: a horizontal fibo level and a slanted level on the channel. I marked this zone out with a triangle.

The CCI indicator is in the -100 zone. A further fall in the price of iron ore could see the Australian dollar remain under pressure.

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