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Short-term Trading Idea FX USD/NOK Bear Speculation: Expected Dollar Fall to 8.11

Trading opportunities for currency pair: after a weak NFP, the likelihood of a drop in the US base rate this year has become all the more unlikely. Oil extraction is continuing to fall with the low oil prices. The conditions for a dollar correction to 8.11 are there.


The last idea I made on the USD/NOK was published last week on 28th September. After a sharp growth, the dollar corrected against the NOK due to a speech from Janet Yellen. I considered 8.3310 as the first target and the dollar reached this over the course of the week.

Current situation

Some disappointing NFP data came out on Friday, sending the dollar down to 8.3237. The September indicator came out lower than expected and was reassessed downwards for the preceding two months.

Job creation in the US’s non-agricultural sector increased by 142,000 in September, although it was forecasted to increase by 210,000. July’s figure was reassessed downwards to 223k from 245k and the August value was also dropped from 173k to 136k. The reassessment totals a loss of 59,000 of work places.

US unemployment for September met expectations and stood at 5.1% (previous: 5.1%). The index for average hourly wages for the month saw no increase (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: 0.3%). The level of population involvement in the labor force fell by 0.2 to 62.4; the indicator had previously been unchanged at 62.6 for three months in a row.

What’s interesting at the moment?

The USD/NOK has fallen to 18th March’s projected support. Following such bad NFP data, market participants don’t believe the US fed will increase their base rate this year. In the most extreme case, the sellers have time until 18th November (the last FOMC meeting of this year). As part of a downward dollar correction, I’m expecting a weakening of the Norwegian krona to 8.11

A growth in oil prices this week could offer a helping hand to the krona bulls. On Friday the price of oil was up after data came out from Baker Hughes.

According to the latest data, the total number of extraction rigs fell by 29 to 809 in the week ending 2nd October. The fall for the year now totals 1113. The number of oil extraction rigs was down by 26 to 614. The number of gas extraction rigs fell by 2 to 195.

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