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Euro/Dollar: Expected Session Minimum Renewal


Yesterday’s Trading:

On Monday the euro/dollar closed down. Despite weak ISM and PMI service indices, the USD was able to win back its losses. The payrolls came out before the service indices, so September’s ISM data didn’t really interest anyone.

Main news of the day:

  • At 09:00 EET, Germany is publishing industrial order data for August. A growth in the indicator by 0.5% is expected (previous: -1.4%);
  • At 17:00 EET, Canada is publishing its PMI from Ivey for September;
  • At 20:00 EET, the ECB’s Mario Draghi will give a speech.

Market Expectations:

On Tuesday the economic calendar is empty. I would take a punt in saying that, after the minimum is renewed during European trades, the euro/dollar will close around the LB.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1225 (US), minimum: 1.1155 (Europe), close: 1.1195;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 124 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading under the balance line. Talk of a prolongation of euro QE will keep the pressure on the euro until the end of the year. It’s unlikely that the US Fed will put their rates up. After yesterday’s correction, today I’m looking at a euro growth for the second half of the day. It would be ideal to see the euro closing on the LB, in which case we can consider a fall of the EURUSD to 1.1095 on Wednesday.


EUR/USD Hourly Graph


The buyers aren’t being very active. On Monday they lost all their payrolls gains. After yesterday’s day-candle, the risks of a return to 1.11 are up. Now to the Weekly.


EUR/USD Daily Graph


The euro/dollar is still trading in a sideways trend between 1.1086 and 1.1459. We just have to keep waiting for it to move out.


EUR/USD Weekly Graph

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