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Euro/Dollar: Expected Fall to 1.0894


Yesterday’s Trading:

On Tuesday the euro/dollar fell to 1.0935. From here, the euro weakening further against the USD was held back by US PMI data. New industrial goods orders in October fell by 1.0% against a forecasted 0.9% fall (previous: reassessed from -1.7% to -2.0%).

Main news of the day:

  • At 10:00 EET, UK report on housing prices;
  • From 10:15 to 11:00 EET, EU service PMIs;
  • At 11:30 EET, UK service sector PMI for October;
  • At 15:15 EET, US employment number changes for October from ADP;
  • At 17:00 EET, ISM October business activity index in service sector and Janet Yellen set to speak.

Market Expectations:

The USD is gathering strength before the NFP. The US stats coming out are mixed and as such are not giving the eurobears an unhindered opportunity to head on through to 1.0840. It’s unlikely that the buyers will be active in the coming months since the monthly time frame is indicating to sell euros.

From today’s news it’s worth picking out UK PMI, ADP and Yellen’s speech. If Yellen doesn’t mention Fed monetary policy, there’ll be no market reaction to her speech whatsoever.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1. 0967, minimum: 1.0894, close: 1.0913;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 119 points (4 figures).

On Tuesday, the euro/dollar fell from the LB to the D2 MA line. The euro’s fall stopped at the 90 degree Gann. The current rate is 1.0946. On my forecast I’ve gone for a return of the rate to 28th October’s (2015) minimum.

 EUR/USD Hourly Graph


On Tuesday the euro/dollar fell 50 points. The price is beneath 1.1095 for the mean while; in future reviews, I’ll be talking about a fall of the euro to 1.0838. Now to the Weekly.

EUR/USD Daily Graph


The price is again below the trend line and it’s unclear where the market will close after Friday’s NFP. The monthly candle for October is indicating that the euro is set to fall further, so I’m only talking about selling euros here. The target is still in the 1.0818-1.0838 zone.

EUR/USD Weekly Graph

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