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Euro/Dollar: Waiting for NFP


Yesterday’s Trading:

On Thursday after a fall to 1.0833, the euro/dollar stabilised at 1.0875. The euro received support from the euro/pound cross when the GBP fell under pressure after the BoE meeting, and also after the minutes from the meeting were published along with the Bank’s quarterly review.

No one even bothered to look at the US stats. Initial unemployment benefit applications in the country increased from 260k to 276k.

Main news of the day:

  • At 09:00 EET, German September industrial manufacturing data;
  • 11:30, UK industrial manufacturing, production in the manufacturing industry, September balance of trade;
  • 15:30 Canada and the US are publishing labor market reports for October.

Market Expectations:

The euro/dollar has bounced back from the LB. The euro market on the hourly is currently balanced. The NFP report is out today. As it comes out, the technical signals won’t be working. Whatever people are saying, it is not worth forecasting the rates and strategies to trade on today. At 15:30 EET you could be very lucky, or you could incur heavy losses.

Even if the euro closes up today against the USD, bear in mind that Draghi has promised to reassess the current ECB monetary policy at the December meeting. You can’t write off the ECB undertaking additional measures to push up inflation. In any case though, the euro will remain under pressure and will head beneath 1.0800.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: n/a, minimum: n/a, close: n/a;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 119 points (4 figures).

I’ve made my forecast for up to 15:30 EET. I expect to see a slight stray from the LB.

EUR/USD Hourly Graph


The euro/dollar has reached the zone that we wanted in my last EUR/USD idea: 1.0807-1.0838. Now we need to wait for a break in 1.0800. I did say that I’m going for a falling cycle for the euro until 18-20th November. Here we could see a correction. Now to the Weekly.

EUR/USD Daily Graph


The euro has reached the 1.0818-1.0838 zone. Although on the weekly: after a break in the trend line we could well shift to 1.0725.

EUR/USD Weekly Graph

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