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Euro/Dollar: Euro Can’t Strengthen below 1.0600


Yesterday’s Trading:

On Wednesday the EUR/USD renewed its minimum after American data came out positive; the number of initial applications from unemployment benefit was down significantly with durable goods orders up along with new housing sales and business activity in the service sector. Since the euro/dollar has reached a support, as the US holiday approached yesterday, a fixing of profit on USD long positions began. The euro/dollar headed back up another 75 points to 1.0641.

The number of initial applications from unemployment benefit for the week ending 21/11 was 260k (forecasted: 270k, previous: 272k).

The durable goods orders index for October stood at 3.0% (forecasted: 1.5%, previous: -0.8%).

The consumer confidence index from Michigan university was up from 90.0 to 91.3.

The US service index for business activity increased from 54.8 to 56.5.

New housing sales in the US were up from 468k to 495k.

The October US index for personal incomes stood at 0.4% (forecasted: 0.4%, previous: 0.1%). The October US index for personal expenditure was 0.1% (forecasted: 0.3%, previous: 0.1%).

Main news of the day (EET):

  • 14:00, December German consumer confidence index from Gfk;
  • US Thanksgiving day.

Market Expectations:

Today is a holiday in the US and Friday is a half day. Market participant activeness will be observable in the first half of the day. Due to yesterday’s euro recoil from 1.0565, Thursday looks to bring the rate back to 1.0667 and then to the LB.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.0667, minimum: 1.0615 (current in Asia), close: 1.0630;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar has returned to the LB. The pair has been consolidating in a narrow range underneath the 67th degree for 10 hours. The price already takes the ECB’s relaxation of monetary policy into account. On Thursday the calendar is empty. In the US it’s a holiday. I see only one scenario: depart upwards to 1.0667 and a rebound to the LB on the American session.

EUR/USD Hourly Graph


There’s word going round that the ECB has started to actively debate easing their monetary policy and so the euro/dollar dropped to 1.0565. The price has ricocheted from the hourly support. Looking at the past three daily candles, it’s impossible to tell which direction the price is going because the last bar is external. It closed with its own candle shades for 23rd and 24th November. Now the players will wait and see which direction the price will leave its 1.0565 – 1.0688 range. Now to the Weekly.

EUR/USD Daily Graph


On news that the ECB is contemplating a further relaxation of its monetary policy, the euro/dollar updated its minimum, but the price couldn’t stay below 1.0600. I’m sure that many traders will close their short positions when the euro drops and then leave with their money.

EUR/USD Weekly Graph

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