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Euro/Dollar: Expected Flat


Yesterday’s Trading:

Thanksgiving in the US allowed the euro some respite. Due to the thin market, the euro dollar traded between 1.0599 and 1.0626. Without the US there’s no liquidity.

Main news of the day (EET):

  • 11:30, UK Q3 GDP data, September service sector activeness index;
  • 12:00, Eurozone consumer confidence index, business climate, optimism in industry and economic sentiment indices for November.
  • 15:30, Canadian PMI for October.

Market Expectations:

On Friday we’ll see stats coming out of the UK and the Eurozone. It is a half working day in the US, so traders could ignore the data. It’s unlikely that anyone will want to open new positions on a thin market before the weekend. Furthermore, the market is readying itself for the ECB meeting next week. Market participants are waiting for the ECB to further relax its monetary policy. The euro could drop to 1.0640 but without any new drivers, growth is doubtful.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.0640, minimum: 1.0590, close: 1.0609;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).

The euro bulls abstained from buying euros on Thursday. It’s strange since the calendar was empty. Due to a rise in the euro/pound cross, it could have easily shifted to 1.0660. The euro has been consolidating in a narrow range for 35 hours. Since the oscillator stochastic is at around 50%, on my forecast I’ve gone for a fall and then a strengthening of the euro to 1.0640. Maybe the opposite will happen: a growth at first to 1.0640 and then recoil downwards. Since the US day is short, I expect to see the closing price at 1.0609.

EUR/USD Hourly Graph


Nothing has changed from yesterday because it was a holiday in the US. The euro/dollar is trading in a narrow range. An external pinbar formed on 25th November. It closed with its own candle shade for 23rd and 24th November. Many traders will wait for the price to leave the 1.0565-1.0688 range. Now to the Weekly.

EUR/USD Daily Graph


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EUR/USD Weekly Graph

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