Siavash Yafteh, analyst contest
On the weekly chart there is a triangle pattern unfolding. The upper boundary of triangle which is also an indication of a down trend occurring since 2008 and well resistance for price movement. If you look at the daily chart, you can clearly see a bearish channel and how price reacting to those lines. In order to mark the end of this current down trend channel we need to see that price go beyond the upper line of channel and close above it.
On the other hand price tested that line four times and failed to close above it which indicates very reliable and strong resistance level. In addition to that, we can use MACD to indicate when price is going to be out of steam and reverse. Right now as the price keeps making lower lows MACD is doing the same suggesting that there is a convergence between price movement and MACD levels. For considering bullish position on this pair, we need an indication that price making lower lows but MACD shows a divergence between those lows.
In regards of possible target for short position 128.86 is a very good target zone, which give this possible trade nice Risk/Reward ratio.