There is no economist in financial market who does not know that Australia’s biggest partner is China. As the biggest partner, the economy of China has a direct impact on the Australian markets. These days we do not hear good news from the second biggest economy in the world. Chinese economy has its own parameters which are different from the western countries economy, meaning that we cannot fully measure and evaluate the Chinese economy with the western tools and mindset. Nonetheless the impact of the Chinese’s economy on the Australian markets is not in disputable.
Anyway if you look at the daily chart of the AUD/JPY, it is clear that there is a channel forming since Nov 2014. It is clearly demonstrate the price reaction around the borderlines of the channel. Every attempted that price made to break those lines was not successful and the price bounced back and reversed. With that information, we can consider those lines to be strong and valid relative to the recent market movements. On the Other hand, whenever the price made a new lower lows in the channel, MACD made a new lows as well but the last two or three recent lows shows a clear divergence in MACD and suggesting that we reached the bottom of the channel and probably a breakout scenario in weeks ahead.
Another important thing is that the price behavior around the middle line of the channel, which acting as a support or resistance zone. As you know price does not move in the straight line most of the times, so you can use the middle line to tune your entry point and set the stop loss level according to your trading plan.