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Fed Meeting Gone by, Now to 1.14

Previous:

On Wednesday the euro/dollar finished trading up. The US Fed took the decision to leave interest rates unchanged in a 0.25% - 0.50% range. All voted to keep the base rate unchanged. The Fed is planning two rate hikes this year, however, six of the Fed bosses forecast there to be only one. According to the latest data from CME Group FedWatch on futures for the rate, after yesterday’s meeting the likelihood of a rise in July has fallen from 21% to 7%. This means that we can expect to see a rise in September.

The euro/dollar reacted up to the decision, rising to 1.1276 and to 1.1298 after Yellen’s press conference. She had nothing new to say.

The US manufacturing production index saw a May fall of -0.4% (forecasted: -0.3%, previous: 0.6).

Market Expectations:

The euro/dollar has stabilised at 1.1262. Since the hourly AO indicator is in the positive zone, from the first half of the day I expect to see a fall in the rate to 1.1245. Since yesterday’s minimum was followed by a sharp bounce, a renewal of the maximum today is off the cards for me. After the Bank of England meets I expect the euro to strengthen to 1.1295.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 10:30, SNB interest rate decision. SNB board press conference;
  • 11:00, planned ECB release of economic bulletin;
  • 11:30, UK retail sales in May;
  • 12:00, Eurozone definitive May CPI data;
  • 14:00, BoE interest rate decision, how the votes went, BoEs monetary policy statement and asset purchasing;
  • 15:30, US May CPI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June, number of initial unemployment benefit applications for week ending 12th June, balance of payments for Q1 2016;
  • 23:00, BoE’s Mark Carney to speak.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1245, maximum: 1.1295, close: 1.1276.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro/dollar has broken through the trend line. The euro bills didn’t break it immediately since the balance line went through the 45th degree. After the US Fed convened the euro headed for the 90th degree.

We see on the hourly graph that a serious resistance has formed at 1.13. To overcome it, we need to some real pace and hit it hard. For this we need to drop to the 45th degree at 1.1245. We can’t drop below to where the trend from the 1.1189 minimum is. If we take a look at the daily timeframe then we will probably be heading up to 1.1420 as part of a W-shaped pattern.

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