Alpari - Analytics

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Oil Market: 29 June – 6 July

Last week, WTI futures plunged 6.4% to $46.31 per barrel. On 6th July the price of WTI crude oil reached a local bottom of $45.91 per barrel. The short-term downtrend was broken earlier, on 5th July, when the price dropped 4%. On 6th July the crude price was continuing to decline.

The weekly trend of Brent future contracts was the same as the WTI trend. The price of Brent declined 5.1% in the same period to $47.48/bbl. The price reached a local bottom ($47.01/bbl) on 6th July. On 22nd June, the price of Brent reached $51 per barrel, however, the price failed to remain above this level.

Crude oil Brent future price, 17-30 June– 1-6 July

The petroleum market data in the US was ambiguous. Commercial oil stocks in the US fell by 4 million barrels, while the market expected the drop to be more than by 2.38 million barrels. However, the number of active drilling rigs rose by 11 units to 341 rigs. That information could be understood as an indicator of the future growth of oil production (especially of shale oil production) in the US.

We expect the price of Brent at the next week at the range of 46.7-49.5 USD per barrel, WTI could remain in a range of 45-46 USD per barrel.



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