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Failed coup in Turkey, euro marching upwards

Previous:

On Friday the euro/dollar closed down. My euro expectations came off only for the first half of the day. The pair corrected to 1.1115, following which there was a bit of a bullish impulse which ran out of steam at 1.1148. After a bounce that didn’t last, a continuation of the euro’s strengthening was expected, but instead market participants started fixing profit from long positions before the weekend and before the release of US stats. Before trade close, the euro crumbled to 1.1024 when the Turkish general secretary declared a coup d’état was underway in the country.

Market Expectations:

The Turkish government managed to stop the uprising. From trade opening, the euro/dollar revived to 1.1064. Today is Monday and so, as per, I am looking at movement against that of Friday independent of any news that comes out. Since the euro weakened on Friday, today I say it will rise to 1.1103. I’m not writing off a rise in prices to 1.1120.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 11:15, BoE’s Martin Weale to speak on monetary policy;
  • 13:00, Bundesbank monthly report;
  • 15:30, foreign purchases of Canadian securities in May;
  • 17:00, US housing market in July from NAHB;
  • 23:00, USD net long-term securities purchases in May.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1044 (current Asian), maximum: 1.1103, close: 1.1092.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Due to the events in Turkey, the euro/dollar dropped to 1.1024. The situation in the country has stabilised, with the lira taking back 50% of its losses. The euro has restored to 1.1070.

My forecast is for movements against that of Friday. The 1.1103 target is near the LB. If the euro strengthening begins from trade opening, we can shift the target to under the trend line at 1.1120 (H1.1164 – H1.1.1148).



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